Sunday, January 29, 2012

Watching the weight / 4

It's been some time since I last wrote about my weight and accompanying issues. I am pleased to note that I have been maintaining a body weight of 79.5 kg during that time. I would of course be even more pleased if I could reduce it, but we have been having a spell of cold weather which causes one to eat more, especially over the weekend (excuses, excuses). Also, before I was managing to walk six (if not seven) nights a week, whereas lately I've been lucky to walk four nights a week (one night is lost to MBA studies - Negotiation was on Thursday evenings and Strategic Management will be on Wednesday evenings). 

One of the Israeli dairy companies (Strauss, via their strategic alliance with Danone) has introduced a new dairy drink called Danacol. Its claim to fame is that each 100ml bottle of drink (three swallows and it's over) contains 1.6g plant sterols, which have been shown to reduce blood cholesterol by up to 10% in 2 to 3 weeks (quoting their Irish website). The Israeli website is slightly more technical, mentioning that the drink contains phytosterols (as opposed to 'plant sterols'), and a quick look at Wikipedia reveals that phytosterol-supplemented functional foods have been shown to reduce total and LDL-cholesterol levels in hundreds of  clinical trials. LDL cholesterol is otherwise known as 'bad' cholesterol; what is important is not so much the absolute amount of LDL cholesterol but rather the ratio between HDL ('good') and total cholesterol.

If I remember correctly, the ratio in my blood is somewhere between 4-5 (total cholesterol to HDL), which is too low. Hopefully, using Danacol will help improve this ratio (the ground flax seeds and walnuts are also supposed to help). To perform this test correctly, I should have a blood test taken this week in order to set a base line, and then compare the current value with a future blood test.

Again, according to the Wiki, the phytosterols complement the statin pill which I (and millions of others) take every day: statins reduce cholesterol synthesis by inhibiting the rate-limiting HMG-CoA reductase enzyme, [whereas] phytosterols reduce cholesterol levels by competing with cholesterol absorption in the gut, a mechanism which complements statins.

At first glance, the drink is slightly expensive: each bottle costs 3.75 NIS, which is about $1. Danone is running a promotional campaign in every country which allows one to purchase a six-pack with a 25% discount, so really the drink will only cost 2.82 NIS/day. I note that the Irish site has an offer for a 2 EU discount; if this is equivalent to the Israeli 25% offer, then danacol in Ireland costs the equivalent of about 6.6 NIS, which makes it nearly 75% more expensive than in Israel. A recent survey showed that food prices are more expensive here than in Europe, so this seems to be a welcome exception.

Disappointment - Finance exam results

Supposedly I am to be notified when the results of each MBA exam are posted; I haven't received such notification yet regarding the Finance exam which I took at the beginning of December, but last night I checked once again and noticed that the results have been posted.

There is a saying in Hebrew (I can't remember the equivalent in English) that 'the greater the expectation, the greater the disappointment'. I had expectations of doing very well in this exam and so was greatly disappointed to discover that my mark was only 69%. This is a comfortable pass, of course, even grade A, but I was expecting a higher score.

As I wrote before, the exam was split into two sections: twenty five multiple choice questions (MCQs), each carrying two marks, and two 'open' questions. I expected to get 20 out of the 25 MCQs correct, but my mark shows that I was correct in only 16. Those marks which I thought I had in the bag made quite a difference to my final score.

Oh well. I haven't failed the exam but I have failed myself and so the disappointment is greater. I am now revising for the Negotiation exam (first week of March) and next week I will start my final course, Strategic Management. I have no expectations as regarding Negotiation, so I'll probably surprise myself.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Displaying a database table as a tree

A few months ago, I added to the Occupational Psychologist's management program a module which tracks calls to various clients. This is a simplified version of a Customer Management System (CMS) and became necessary when two of the OP's staff left without leaving proper documentation of their work. A single call holds the customer's name (well, the customer's id number), the subject of the call, the contact person, the text of the call and the date on which the call was made. There then arose the need to create a followup call which is based on a previously existing call; such followup calls would be stored in the same table as the original call, but obviously there need be a way of showing the connection between the two.

The logical way of doing this would be to add a 'predecessor' field to the calls table; a new call would store 0 in this field whereas a followup call would store the id of the predecessor call. For reasons which escape me now, I elected not to do this. Despite this, I will write here as if there is a 'predecessor' field in the calls table.

Use of this field is the basis of the threaded view of calls. A thread will start with one call (which has been termed the 'original' call above), then continue to a second call (the 'followup' call) and so on. The original call may have two threads arising from it, and a followup call may have its own followup call. In order to show the call hierarchy correctly, the calls have to be displayed in a tree view.

Let us assume that there are the following calls: A0 is the first call in a thread. From this call, two successor calls were made, A1 and A2. There is a successor call from A1 denoted as call A11. A separate thread was opened for the same customer, with calls B0, B1 and B11. Crudely drawn in an HTML table, the hierarchy looks like this:



A0A1A11
A2
B0B1B11


Here is a partial view of how the calls table might look:



# nodesubjectpredecessor
1A00
2B00
3B12
4A11
5A21
6B113
7A114


Originally I used a fairly complicated algorithm, but looking at the problem now, I see that I can draw the tree with a much simpler algorithm which requires only one access to the database.
select id, curdate, predecessor
from calls
where customer = :p1
order by id
The resulting dataset will be the same as the table drawn above (except for the fact that I am retrieving each call's date and not its subject). Here is suitable code to draw the tree based on this dataset:

with qGetCalls do
 begin
  close;
  params[0].asinteger:= custnum;
  open;
  try;
   tv.items.BeginUpdate;
   while not eof do
    begin
     anchor:= fieldbyname ('predecessor').asinteger;
     if anchor = 0
      then node:= nil
      else node:= FindFatherNode (anchor);
     AddChildObject (node, fieldbyname ('curdate').asstring, pointer (fieldbyname ('id').asinteger))
     next
    end;
  finally;
   tv.items.EndUpdate;
  end;
end;

Function TShowCallsTree.FindParentNode (father: longint): ttreenode;
var
 node: ttreenode;

begin
 node:= tv.nodes[0];
 while (node <> nil) and (longint (node.data) <> father) do node:= node.GetNext;
 result:= node;
end;
The above code is unchecked but looks as if it should do the work correctly. The hack part of this code uses the data property of each tree node. Nominally, this is a pointer which points to a dynamically created record holding some form of data connected with the node (indeed, I saw code a few days ago which worked this way, creating a pointer to a record with new and then saving the pointer in the data property), but when the data to be stored is an integer, it can be stored directly in the data property, via a type cast, and of course can be retrieved directly. 

The FindParentNode code as written is very simple - and possibly very slow, as every time it is called, it has to start from the first node in the tree. At the moment, I think that each customer has less than ten calls (meaning ten nodes in the tree), but in a year's time, this code is going to be slow and will probably need some form of optimisation. It turns out that there is a GetPrev method, which returns the previous node in the tree; it should be quicker to start always at the end of the tree and move backwards. The final node in the tree is always known as this is returned by the AddChildObject method (I neglected to save this value in the code above). This assumes, though, that the speed of GetNext/GetPrev are similar; even so, a 'backwards' approach would require checking fewer nodes.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

I wrote a few months ago that I had heard that John Le Carre's classic 1974 book had been converted into a film, this thirty years after the BBC made a seven part television series. I had the pleasure of watching the film yesterday; I'm not sure of my response.

The book shown on the left of course is not the same as my copy, but rather a new printing which ties in with the film - that's Gary Oldman as George Smiley on the cover. I think that Sir Alec Guiness made a better Smiley.

I think that I know the book so well that I am unable to appreciate someone else's version of the story. Instead I nitpick:
  • Operation Testify now takes place in Budapest, Hungary instead of Brno, Czechoslovakia (as it was then) - because it was 20% cheaper to film there! The book version of Testify is completely different to the filmed version, which actually begins with this. Whilst this is chronologically correct, the operation is revealed only about two thirds of the way during the book, in order to maintain the reader's curiosity (and also because George Smiley has to find out on his own what happened).
  • Some of the scenes with Jim Prideaux and the boarding school are shown (doesn't Bill Roach look like Peter Griffin from 'Family Guy'!) but appear in the wrong place as per the book. The episode where Jim Prideaux strangles the owl (or whatever it was that flew out of the fireplace) is shown but misses its resolution: the whole point of this was to hint at who killed Bill Haydon at the end (his neck was broken, where in the film he is shown being shot). This is called foreshadowing and is an example of the Chekhov's gun trope. The film bungles this.
  • George Smiley's house has moved inexplicably from Chelsea to Islington, and Ricki Tarr has his adventure in Turkey as opposed to Hong Kong (Portugal in the BBC version). Budgeting again? 
  • Someone got confused between Sam Collins and Jerry Westerby: Sam's lines were spoken by Westerby! So why was the character not called Collins?
  • Smiley's hotel has moved from near Paddington to near Liverpool Street.
  • Russian spy Poliakov was only a veiled threat during the book, where he appeared in one scene at the end; in the film we see him frequently.
  • Whilst Irina was shipped off from Hong Kong by plane, here she is shipped off (literally); that's understandable if her part of the action took place in Istanbul. But why on earth was she presented during Jim Prideaux's interrogation? There was no way that Prideaux could or should have known who she was. And as for her demise ... the one truly shocking moment of the film ("I didn't see that one coming" - Austin Powers).
The casting was also slightly strange: in my humble opinion, Cieran Hinds (Roy Bland) would have been much more successful as Sir Percy Alleline than Toby Jones was; Hinds had the height of the fictional Alleline and was much more threatening. Colin Firth was wasted as Bill Haydon; his charisma was never shone (Firth hardly spoke) and one never got the sense that everyone knew it was him but was afraid of saying so (although this is mentioned right at the end). As for the characterisation of Toby Esterhase, the less said, the better.

I can't say whether the story as presented makes much sense. So much seems to be a fait accompli, Witchcraft is presented at the beginning and Smiley doesn't have to ferret out the truth.

It's ironic that Irina was shipped back to Russia from Istanbul. The general story of Bill Haydon was based on that of Kim Philby; John Le Carré himself (under his born name of David Cornwell) was one of the spies blown by Philby. Philby himself was nearly blown by the attempted defection of a Russian spy called Volkov; the telegram offering his services (like Tarr's telegram) ended up on Philby's desk, who was able to arrange the capture of Volkov. Volkov was then invalided out of Istanbul onto a Russian ship, like Irina.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

More City Boy

When I was listening to City Boy in the mid to late seventies, there was of course no Internet and very little transfer of information. That can easily be rectified now. The picture below shows drummer Roy Ward (first on left), who joined after original drummer Roger Kent (first two albums) left (fired?) the group.


l-r: Roy Ward (drums, lead vocals), Mike Slater (lead guitar), Chris Dunn (bass), Max Thomas (keyboards), Steve Broughton (lead vocals, rhythm guitar), Lol Mason (lead vocals).
A little bit of work today revealed three sites worthy of attention:
  1. An interview with Steve Lunt, aka Steve Broughton, joint lead singer with City Boy. It's not mentioned in the interview why he changed his name; I believe that Lunt was his original name which he changed to Broughton during the CB days. This is most confusing as during the early to mid seventies, there was a group called the Edgar Broughton Band from the Birmingham area (Warwick), whose bassist was also named Steve Broughton, Edgar's brother.  Just to add to the confusion, the City Boy 'where are they now' page says that his name was Steve Blunt.
  2. A message board, containing plenty of information about City Boy (as well as much extraneous information; one has to sift).
  3. A concert recorded at the BBC prior to the release of their first album! This shows how capable they were of reproducing their recorded sound live - in fact, so close that I'm not too sure how valuable it is listening to the concert. I normally find live or rehearsal recordings illuminating as regards the released versions, but here there's very little difference (obviously no double tracked guitars, and the keyboards are barely audible).

Friday, January 13, 2012

Caught in a musical timeweb

In 1977, I went a few times to concerts at the Roundhouse in Camden Town, London. In those days, the bill would feature three groups with hopefully some form of compatibility between them. One Sunday, the bill was headlined by Van der Graaf Generator supported by two punk/pubrock groups (the 101ers, including Joe Strummer, who went on to The Clash). I have never seen such an antagonistic audience (including myself shouting 'Get off!' at the support); someone made a mistake with that bill!

In June 1977 I saw Caravan play, supported by an otherwise unknown group called City Boy. Actually, I had heard the name before: in 1975, I started reviewing lps for my university's newspaper and received in the course of my duties records and information packs about upcoming acts, including the above mentioned City Boy. Their information sheet must not have been too attractive as I elected not to ask for their record.

Anyway, in my opinion, City Boy blew Caravan off the stage. A few days after the concert, I bought their current record (their second) called 'Dinner at the Ritz', and a few months later I bought their third album, called 'Young men gone west'. I dimly recall  finding their eponymous debut album at Swiss Cottage library and taping it.

Fast forward to the 2000s and the cd age: I managed to find a compilation cd by City Boy called 'Anthology' which contained a melange of tracks from all their albums, presented with no logical order. Finally in the past few days I managed to locate the original albums, after which I burned a copy of the eponymous album in order to listen to it in the car on the way to studies (It seems that most of their albums are now available on cd, which wasn't the case a few years ago).

The core of City Boy came from a semiprofessional folk group which played in the Birmingham area; some of the folk sound came through to the record, especially the opener ("Moonlight") and the closer ("Haymaking time"). Inbetween was a sound somewhere between pop and rock; they have been described as a mixture of 10cc and Queen.

The 10cc comparison comes mainly from the smart alec lyrics, written by singer Lol Mason (and funnily enough, 10cc had Lol Creme, LOL), whereas the Queen comparison probably comes from the amount of electric guitar liberally sprayed around the songs.

There are parts of the record which still hold up, 35 years after the event. I'm not one for screaming electric guitars, which makes listening to part of the record a bit difficult. But there are still some excellent songs which reward one. 'Dinner at the Ritz', as I recall, was even more guitar orientated (and featured the saxophone of David Jackson and voice of Peter Hammill on the eponymous track), whereas 'Young men gone west' was more laid-back and mellow. After these first three records, they aimed for a more pop/rock sound (hit single '5705') which I liked less and less.

I listened today to 10cc's 1976 record, "How dare you!"; whilst there might be grounds for comparing City Boy's lyrics to those of 10cc, 10cc leave City Boy in the dust from a musical point of view. City Boy had conventional and singable songs with conventional arrangements, whereas 10cc (in those days) were anything but. Unfortunately, Lol Creme and Kevin Godley, who were the anarchistic half of the group left at the end of 1976, and 10cc went on to be much more conventional.

Their 1977 offering, "Deceptive Bends" was a mixture, with only one song reaching the heights of their previous offerings ("Honeymoon with B troop") and a few others which were reasonable ("Good morning Judge" and frequently played hit, "The things we do for love").

One of the more annoying tracks on "Deceptive Bends" was an uptempo song called "You've got a cold". It so happens that one of the best songs on City Boy's debut album was called "Doctor Doctor", which covers a similar lyrical topic (only better) and has a killer bass riff (as does "You've got a cold"). I wondered then (and now) whether 10cc even knew of the City Boy song when they recorded their song.

Sunday, January 08, 2012

Tooth extraction

I had the dubious pleasure of having a wisdom tooth extracted on Friday. I wrote about this before, at which time a date was set in February. The clinic called me on Thursday, presumably because they had an empty slot, and as it happens, I too was available.

As I have a particularly strong gag reflex, the hardest part for me was accepting the local anaesthesia. This was eventually accomplished with much gagging, choking and spitting. The dentist sprayed my throat with the same spray which is used during an gastroscopy, although there it is accompanied by a very quick acting version of the date-rape drug, which apart from relaxing the patient, prevents the creation of memories.

Once we got over that part, there was only the minor problem of extracting the tooth. I got the feeling that the tooth was extracted in three parts; it didn't hurt but was uncomfortable. Afterwards, I bit on a gauze pad to stop bleeding. I was given two simple pain killers which more than did their job: there was no pain in the evening or on the following morning, for which I am thankful.

So: there only remains the problem of the embedded tooth. The dental expert wants it removed whereas I don't - at least, until it causes problems. If I do have to go to hospital, then I am going to try to obtain special anaesthesia.

Saturday, January 07, 2012

The difficult negotiator

I freely admit that I am only taking the MBA course in Negotiation because of timetable scheduling. If I had more freedom and were prepared to take more than one course per semester, then I probably would have taken a financial course. Even so, the Negotiation course is intellectually stimulating.

Today, when reading the course book, I came across the following paragraphs, written about handling the difficult negotiator (I have edited it slightly to make it more comprehensible when taken out of context; the 'Thompson' referred to is not Richard Thompson but rather an argumentative and unpleasant trade unionist).

It might therefore be useful to tie together some general advice on how to handle a difficult negotiator. First, you must separate people who are difficult only with you from those who cause problems for everyone. It might be you that is the cause of the difficulty and not them. What are you contributing to the difficulty of the relationship? What have you done, or been perceived to have done? Whatever it is, you had better put it right.

Some people, however, are deliberately difficult because they have found that their behaviour usually produces what they want. For them there is a direct connection between their behaviour and the outcomes they seek. Their behaviour intimidates their ‘victims’ into submission and where it does not have this effect we get the kind of problem represented by the Thompson situation – bitter contests of will, much stress and tension and a totally Red–Red manner from both him and the managers. Dealing with these types of difficult negotiators sometimes prompts a debate on whether to match or contrast their behaviour. 

The choices of matching or contrasting look like another dilemma because neither response answers the key question of what you are supposed to do next. The clue to the answer lies in what outcome the difficult negotiator is seeking from his behaviour – he intends that you will submit. Hence, your tactical aim is to deprive him of that purpose by disconnecting his behaviour from the outcome.

The response to all forms of difficult behaviour can be summed up in the statement that ‘your behaviour will not affect the outcome’. Whether you express this statement directly to the difficult negotiator must depend upon the circumstances, but you certainly must articulate its meaning to yourself in all circumstances. Let it become your mantra!

By disconnecting his behaviour from the outcome you will also cease to make his behaviour an issue – how he chooses to behave is his business not yours. Hence, all temptations to advise him on how to behave must be resisted. Statements like there will be no negotiations until ‘he changes his manners’ or until the ‘union is back into procedure’ and so on, are a waste of time and re-connect the behaviour with the outcome. Realising that his behaviour is not going to influence the outcome – you are not going to submit to it – does more to change his behaviour than confronting the behaviour directly.

I too have my private Thompson, my bete noire; this is someone who runs a subsidiary company to mine. For some reason I was designated the point of contact regarding the inventory which he holds on a consignment basis (ie it's our inventory which he pays for when he sells). Every few months, relations grow very hot under the collar, and at one point I refused to have any more to do with this person, so unpleasant is he. In a discussion with my company's president, it turns out that everybody feels the same way as our private Thompson.

The above quoted paragraphs from the Negotiation text should be my mantra: his behaviour will not affect the outcome!

Sunday, January 01, 2012

Spooks

One of the minor television channels in Israel started showing the British drama series Spooks from the beginning, and I was fortunate to see all the episodes screened, starting from the beginning (previously I had seen a few episodes from the seventh or eighth series and didn't really understand very much).

The first series started off promisingly by showing as much of top agent Tom's out of office life as it did his in office life. The second series was even better than the first and finished on a huge cliff-hanger. As episodes were being screened here on a nightly basis, I didn't have to wait long for the resolution. One thing became clear about this series: anybody could die (or at least, leave). This was signaled in only the second episode when one of the staff was killed, but the second episode of the third series had main character Tom being sacked after undergoing what amounted to a nervous breakdown.

His leaving was signaled in advance by the addition of a new character in the first episode of the third series; this signal was to be repeated twice more during the same series as two of the other mainstays (Zoe and Danny) also left the series. Might the fact that the actress playing the part of Zoe left her husband in order to live with the actor playing the part of Tom have anything to do with this?

The fourth series opened with 50% of the original cast/staff having been replaced and an emphasis on more action orientated stories. I have to admit that I prefer the more cerebral stuff. I don't think that a gun was shown at all during the first series, whereas the series 3 closer and the series 4 opener had guns alore - which were used. The body count in one episode was higher than the entire first series (and possibly the first two series). 

As I've only seen the first two episodes of the fourth series, I will refrain from making more comments, save to say that these episodes brought a change of style which I didn't care for. Although I had recorded all the episodes (for the show is shown late at night), to my chagrin I had deleted almost all of them, and only the last few episodes have found their way to permanent storage. I'm going to retain all the episodes from now on, and recover the missing episodes from the Internet.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Negotiation

Negotiations and love songs
Are often mistaken for one and the same
(Paul Simon)

I started my eighth MBA course, Negotiation, a bare week ago, but already we've had four sessions as the timetable calls for one session on Thursday evening and another on Friday morning. This is quite a taxing schedule and it's not clear why this was adopted; I suspect it might be that the lecturer far lives away from Tel Aviv and this schedule minimises his traveling time by allowing him to sleep over in Tel Aviv on Thursday evening. We have six weeks like this (twelve meetings) and one more Friday morning meeting which takes us up to the end of January. There are no lectures whatsoever during February, then there is a revision meeting at the beginning of March and the exam on 10 March. This isn't the sort of schedule which I would have preferred, but as the youth of today say, "Deal with it".

The opening lectures gave an introduction into the subject of negotiation (the text was written by Professor Gavin Kennedy), in which we initially learnt that negotiation is but one of ten ways of resolving disputes (or making decisions). The other ways are refusal, persuasion, problem solving, chance (tossing a coin), arbitration, coercion, postponing, instruction and giving up. The major difference between negotiation and the other methods is that in negotiation, both sides give up something in order to achieve a mutually agreed conclusion, whereas in the other methods, one side gives up nothing and the other side gives up everything.

After this, we learnt about the four stages of negotiation:
  1. Prepare
  2. Debate
  3. Propose
  4. Bargain
The following lecture was about preparing for negotiation; this includes identifying interests, deriving tradables  from these interests, prioritising these tradables and then defining entry and exit values for them.

On Thursday night we learnt how to conduct the debate stage of negotiation, which means trying to maximise one's constructive behaviour whilst minimising one's destructive behaviour (I won't list what constructs these behaviours). 

I wasn't feeling very well that evening and had to leave halfway through the evening; on Friday morning I was feeling a bit - but not much - better, so I decided to drive to Tel Aviv. Fortunately, we didn't have a lecture - instead we had to simulate a negotiation; the scenario was taken from an old exam paper. The class (very small: we started off at 8am with maybe eight students and the number doubled by 8:30am) divided into two groups, where each group took one side of the negotiation. Each group was tasked with identifying the interests and deriving the tradables  etc, as per the earlier paragraph. We were also advised to try and do the same for the opposite side so that we wouldn't been surprised during the negotiation.

During this time, most of my group were silent; only two other people and I contributed to the discussion. This was slightly annoying as I was having difficulty in speaking and had to maintain a constant infusion of tea. Nevertheless, I and one other were nominated to conduct the negotiation. At least I won't have to do this again in the future.

I won't describe how the simulation went (not that anything extra-ordinary happened); afterwards, everyone else in the class was invited to make comments about what they saw. Unknown to the negotiators, one extra person from each group had been specifically nominated to analyse each team's behaviour (constructive and destructive). Whilst there was a fair amount of constructive behaviour (I was very conscious of all four negotiators being extremely polite, not interrupting and trying to be 'good'), there was also a certain amount of destructive behaviour. What was lacking primarily, though, was a lack of connections between tradables (I'll give you this if you give me that), which made the negotiation problematic.

I will paraphrase a comment made by someone yesterday (who came late): at first, I thought this was going to be a boring exercise,  but by the time it had finished, I came to understand the theory much better. Indeed, the criticism brought home how we could have better run the negotiation (in mitigation, I point out that none of us were personally involved, so the other side's reduction of its price by "five million pounds" would not have happened in real life).

The lectures are held in the same room as my previous course, finance (in fact, all my lectures for the past two years have been held in this room). In the previous course, one had to arrive early in order to get a good seat (the lecturer had a quiet voice, so I preferred to be near the front in order to hear her properly). In this course, one can arrive half an hour late, bring two friends and still get a good seat! I'm not sure how many students are actually registered to take the course, but most have only made token appearances. Apart from a 'hard core' of maybe eight who appear every time, the course seems to have attracted a floating set of students who appear now and then. This seems to bother me more than it bothers the lecturer.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

The sense of an ending

Although I grew up reading literary novels, these days I read more non-fiction than fiction, and more police procedurals than anything else. Despite this, I very much enjoyed reading Julian Barnes' novel, "The sense of an ending", which won the 2011 Man Booker prize (I didn't know this when I started to read the book).

I think that my enjoyment stemmed more from identifying with the protagonist than anything described in the book, which means that I will have to reread the book in a few weeks in which time I hope that my emotional involvement will have lessened.

It's not as if anything specific which happened in the book happened to me in real life (in fact, I would be hard pressed to find anything which happened in the book that also happened to me); it's just that the opening half of the book is, (quoting the Guardian)
[a] memoir of "book-hungry, sex-hungry" sixth form days, and the painful failure of his first relationship at university, with the spiky, enigmatic Veronica. It's a lightly sketched portrait of awkwardness and repression. This is something which makes a great deal of sense to me and seems very familiar. I too look back on my formative years from a 30-40 year distance.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Watching the weight / 3

Even though I finished my course of acupuncture and massage about six weeks ago, I continue to eat according to the diet that the naturopath gave me, and continue with my 'heavy' walking in the evenings. I had an appointment with the naturopath the day of my finance exam (two weeks ago already!) and she was very pleased by the fact that I had lost over 5kg in weight.

I asked her about the flax seeds which I had been eating - it turns out that these should be ground before eating them! I was eating and excreting them without deriving any benefit. She gave me some alternatives to the flax seeds which don't require any treatment prior to eating - wheat germ and chi'a seeds (? I'm not sure what these are in English). I bought some wheat germ which I have been adding to my morning yoghurt; this has no discernible taste but definitely thickens the yoghurt. Yesterday evening my wife surprised me by grounding some flax seed, so I added this to my yoghurt this morning - the result was near enough the same as with the wheat germ. Both of these items seem to provide many micro-nutrients.

My weight did decrease to 79.1 kg prior to the exam but it's crept up by about half a kilo since then. I'm not sure what I was doing then or since which might have caused the change - apart from a great deal of mental exercise. I know that the brain requires as much as 15% of the body's energy intake, but I don't think that one can increase this amount by thinking hard!

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Front end program for converting HTML to PDF

I was approached by someone (not in my company) with a peculiar problem, connected with our mutual ERP program, Priority. This person has to send to a medical insurance company copies  of invoices issued to certain customers each month, in PDF format.

Until she approached me, she had been selecting and displaying each invoice separately (Priority uses Internet Explorer as its default display mechanism for all reports, including invoices), then sending the invoice to be 'printed' via a PDF printer (thus creating a PDF file) and then renaming the file to be the name of the customer (unfortunately, Priority gives an arbitrary name to files it creates). This process was taking a few hours every month and I was asked to speed it up.

My initial action was to change a definition in the PDF printer driver, so that the driver would create a separate file for every page sent to it. I then showed the person how to select and display all the necessary invoices in one go and send the data to the PDF printer, thus creating several files. Unfortunately, there still existed the need to rename each file. This simple action maybe cut the time needed by 25% but it wasn't enough.

There had to be a better way. The first stage in improving the process was to write a little program (a stored procedure, really) in Priority which creates one html file per invoice, where the file is named according to the customer name and the invoice number. Unfortunately, it transpired that it was not possible to create such a file when the customer name was in Hebrew, and as all the customers' names are in Hebrew, this was quite a problem. So I substituted the customer identity number (not the customer number) for the customer name and was able to create separate html files.

Then there only remained the problem of creating pdf files from these html files. At one stage, I asked whether the medical insurance company would be willing to receive html files, but the answer was negative. After contemplation, I realised that I needed a program to convert html to pdf in order to provide a complete solution.

Like many problems, this was easier said than done. I spent several hours googling html pdf convert and then checking out the links. Most of the answers which I received pointed to online services, which would not be suitable. Of the answers remaining, most of these were for commercial programs. I found one program which seemed to be free; I downloaded it and tried it out but saw that it lacked a batch mechanism (my idea required to convert 10+ files in one go). I tried a trial version of a commercial program: whilst this had a batch interface, it included a 'trial message' version in the pdf, and more damning, failed to convert a Hebrew html file.

Eventually I found a command line program (CLP) called wkhtmltopdf, written by a enthusiast programmer (as opposed to a commercial program written by a professional programmer). My experience is that such programs are often better than commercial ones, although getting them to work can be awkward. First I checked that this program could convert a Hebrew html file correctly (yes). Then I set about writing a front end interface program - this program would list all html files found in a specific directory, allow the user to choose which files to convert and then pass these files to the CLP for conversion.

My first version of the front end program wasn't too successful as it tried to start about ten simultaneous instances of the CLP; this brought my computer to its knees. Whilst waiting for my computer to reboot, I realised that I needed to send one file to the CLP, wait for it to finish converting, and then send the next file.

Another problem which I encountered was that the CLP couldn't handle files which were stored in a subdirectory of c:\program files. I solved this program by using a routine which creates short directory names (eg c:\progra~1). The 'executing' flag was added as a precaution that the user not close the program before all the chosen files were converted; the program's CanClose procedure checks the value of this variable and refuses to close if executing is true. Edit1.text hold the location of the CLP.

Here is the interesting part of the code.
procedure TForm1.ConvertBtnClick(Sender: TObject);
var
 i: integer;
 ExitCode: DWORD;
 mydir, htmlname, pdfname: string;
 SEInfo: TShellExecuteInfo;

begin
 ConvertBtn.enabled:= false;
 executing:= true;
 FillChar (SEInfo, SizeOf (SEInfo), 0);
 with SEInfo do
  begin
   cbSize:= SizeOf (TShellExecuteInfo);
   fMask:= SEE_MASK_NOCLOSEPROCESS;
   Wnd:= Application.Handle;
   lpFile:= PChar(edit1.text);
   nShow:= SW_SHOWNORMAL;
  end;

 mydir:= IncludeTrailingPathDelimiter (shortdir (dlb.directory));
 for i:= 1 to lb.items.count do
  if lb.Checked[i-1] then
   begin
    htmlname:= mydir + lb.items[i-1];
    pdfname:= copy (htmlname, 1, length (htmlname) - 4) + 'pdf';
    seInfo.lpParameters:= PChar(htmlname + ' ' + pdfname);
    if ShellExecuteEx (@SEInfo) then
     repeat
      Application.ProcessMessages;
      GetExitCodeProcess (SEInfo.hProcess, ExitCode);
     until ExitCode <> STILL_ACTIVE;
   end;
 executing:= false;
end;
It's not enough to use the Windows API ShellExecute procedure as this simply executes the given program; this is how I managed to create all the simultaneous instances of the CLP.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

50 words for snow - Kate Bush

I've been listening to this album on and off for the past few weeks, ever since an advance copy was available on the NPR website. I've been dreading writing about it, because I find the album difficult to categorise.

I was a very early adopter of Kate Bush, marveling at her 'Wuthering Heights' single and buying her first album in January 1978. I enjoyed all of her first five albums, although there were often songs which didn't find favour in these courts. The sixth and seventh albums were bought and almost never played. I obtained 'Aerial' when it came out but again hardly ever played it. It seemed as if time had stood still for Ms Bush and her music seemed anachronistic. 'The directors cut' again was hosted on NPR prior to its official release, earlier this year. The reworked album was quite listenable but again wasn't really the sort of music to which I listen these days.

'50 words for snow' is different from almost everything else Ms Bush has recorded. Unusually, it is very sparse, featuring mainly piano and vocals only. Of course, there are other instruments (Steve Gadd's drums are a highlight, as are the orchestral instruments which add shade here and there) but they're subdued.

In my humble opinion, the sequencing could have been improved. The album starts in a very risky manner, with Kate's son Bertie taking lead vocal on "Snowflake". I find this song very precious (in the non-complimentary sense of the word) and I can imagine many listeners being put off by the first minute of the song (which lasts almost ten minutes). The second song, "Lake Tahoe", also starts in a testing manner, with some operatic vocals. This song continues for just over eleven minutes.

But the third song, "Misty", is where it all comes together. Even though the track lasts for thirteen and a half minutes (!), one never gets the feeling that the track is over-long, or indeed, long. It is a master lesson in dynamics, especially the drums. The next three tracks are much more accessible than everything that has gone before whilst the closing track is a return to the amorphous ballad.

My wife has picked up on this album as well. Yesterday we had the bizarre situation in which I was listening to the album on headphones whilst writing a blog entry; when I finished, I went into the lounge only to hear the same album on the stereo, albeit not the same song (that would have been too weird).

This is an impressionistic piece of music full of prosody; as a musician who lives by harmony, I feel that I don't appreciate it as much as I could.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Preventing "MDI creep": how to decascade a child window

I confessed a terrible feeling of emptiness to my Occupational Psychologist (OP) during our weekly meeting yesterday: until the day before, I been concentrating almost entirely on learning Finance, and now that the exam is over, I don't need to know how to price an option nor what the theory of indifference to dividend policy is. "Don't worry", she said, "I'll find you things to fill you up". And so she did (Happy birthday, by the way!).

One side effect with using MDI applications (such as the management program which I wrote and constantly improve) can be described as follows: when the program's first child window is opened, this window will have its top left hand corner placed in the screen's top left hand corner (coordinates 0, 0). The second child window will be opened automatically at 10, 10 and the third at 20, 20. This was a good idea when screen resolution was not particularly high as it makes good use of the screen's 'real estate'. But times have changed; the OP has one of those extra wide screens and she uses it in a mode which provides a huge amount of real estate. All the child windows congregate on the left hand of the screen and the right hand side is unoccupied.

So the OP drags certain child windows to the right hand side so that she can see several complete and unhidden child windows simultaneously. All is fine until a new child window is displayed; within the program I followed each new window creation with the 'cascade' command - and then the personalised display disappears when all the child windows line up again on the left hand side. This was easy to fix by removing the 'cascade' command after new window creation.

But more insidious is that the MDI screen manager (to which we have no access) will create new child windows as if cascade is still in effect. In other words, the first child window will be created at 0,0, the second at 10,10 and the third at 20,20 - even if the second child window has been moved to a location 200, 600. Worse, this behaviour continues even after the child windows have been closed: new child windows will appear at a location which would be consistent with cascading all the previous child windows.

I researched this behaviour a little yesterday afternoon and discovered that it has been named MDI creep. Whilst naming the behaviour makes it easier to talk about, it doesn't make it any easier to solve.

I posted a question of the Stack Overflow site and master programmer David Heffernan gave an answer which pointed me in the correct direction [I often wonder how David actually gets any work done as he seems to be found almost permanently on SO, answering people's esoteric questions]. It took me about an hour of to-ing and fro-ing with his idea before I had something that worked and about another hour of polishing the entire solution.

The solution boils down to three different parts:
  1. How to enable a child window to signify that it wants to be 'uncascadable'
  2. How to universalise this ability
  3. How to prevent the main MDI window from cascading the uncascadable child windows
The answer to the first part is to use each form's system menu; this is the menu that pops up when one clicks on the form's icon sitting in the top left hand corner of the caption bar.  I used to use the system menu in the early days of Windows programming, but haven't touched it in over a decade. Each form has to add an option to the system menu whose effect will be to toggle the 'cascadability' of the form; so the form has to detect when that option has been chosen and to toggle an internal variable. At the same time, it would be good to give visual feedback on the menu what the state of that variable is at any given time.

Here's the article which I used as the basis for developing the code to add the menu option and detect its being pressed. Finding out how to give the visual feedback was a bit more difficult but eventually I found out how to do this (and more importantly, how to do this correctly!). I'll show the complete code a bit further on.

When I originally wrote this code, it was sitting in the form which needed to be decascaded, but it occurred to me that the technique would be much more valuable if I could use it in almost every form and I wasn't going to copy the code fifty times. The solution is to use form inheritance - to define an ancestor form type which contains the code and then define the actual forms to inherit from this ancestor type. This is one of the huge strengths of Delphi (the entire VCL works on this principal) but is something which I have barely touched.

unit ManageForms;

interface

uses Windows, Forms, Menus, Messages;

type
 TNoCascadeForm = class (TForm)
                   private
                    SysMenu: HMenu;
                   public
                    nocascade: boolean;
                    Procedure GetSysMenu;
                    Procedure WMSysCommand(var Msg: TWMSysCommand); message WM_SYSCOMMAND;
                    Procedure SetCheck;
                    Procedure SaveCheck; virtual; abstract;
                   end;

implementation

const
 SC_NoCascade = WM_USER + 1;

procedure TNoCascadeForm.GetSysMenu;
begin
 SysMenu:= GetSystemMenu (Handle, FALSE);
 AppendMenu (SysMenu, MF_SEPARATOR, 0, '');
 AppendMenu (SysMenu, MF_STRING, SC_NoCascade, 'Decascade');
 SetCheck;
end;

procedure TNoCascadeForm.WMSysCommand (var Msg: TWMSysCommand);
begin
 if Msg.CmdType = SC_NoCascade then
  begin
   nocascade:= not nocascade;
   SetCheck;
   SaveCheck;
  end
 else inherited;
end;

procedure TNoCascadeForm.SetCheck;
var
 iChecked: Integer;

begin
 if nocascade
  then iChecked:= MF_CHECKED
  else iChecked:= MF_UNCHECKED;
 CheckMenuItem (SysMenu, SC_NoCascade, mf_bycommand or ichecked);
end;

end.
Procedure GetSysMenu first gets a pointer to the form's system menu, then adds two options: the first is a separator bar and the second is the 'decascade' option. When this option is pressed, a system message of type 'SC_NoCascade' will be sent to the form. Of course, the form has to know how to handle this message.

The final line in this procedure (which will be called once during the inherited form's create method) is to SetCheck - this procedure draws (or erases) the check mark next to 'Decascade' on the system menu, according to the value of the variable nocascade. This is initially set in the inherited form by reading a value stored in the registry; if there is no registry value then the variable is false (no check mark).

When the system message of type 'SC_NoCascade' is sent, it is intercepted by the form's WMSysCommand method. As all system menu messages pass through this method, it is vital to check what the actual message is; if it is not the specific message, then it is passed on to the inherited message handler. Assuming that the message received is SC_NoCascade, then first the method reverses the value of the internal flag, then calls SetCheck to have the menu option updated and finally calls an abstract method called SaveCheck (this probably should have been defined as a stub in the ancestor form).

The SaveCheck procedure is located in the inherited form and stores the value of nocascade in the registry. This is necessary, for if a new inherited form were to be displayed, its nocascade variable would contain the value previously stored in the registry - which would be oblivious to the change which has just occurred. This procedure has to be located in the inherited form as it is dependent on specific registry values which the ancestor form cannot know.

Here is part of the code of a form which inherits from TNoCascadeForm:
unit Manage57;

interface

uses
  Windows, Messages,  ManageForms, ,,,;
type
  TShowCallsTree = class(TNoCascadeForm)
  .
  .
  .
  private
  public
   Procedure SaveCheck; override;
  end;

implementation

{$R *.dfm}
procedure TShowCallsTree.FormCreate(Sender: TObject);
const
 myheight = 440;
 mywidth = 816;

begin
 constraints.MinWidth:= mywidth;
 constraints.MinHeight:= myheight;
 with reg do
  begin
   height:= ReadInteger (progname, 'ShowCallsTreeH', myheight);
   width:= ReadInteger (progname, 'ShowCallsTreeW', mywidth);
   nocascade:= ReadBool (progname, 'ShowCallsTreeCas', false);
  end;
 GetSysMenu;
  .
  .
  .
end;

procedure TShowCallsTree.FormClose(Sender: TObject; var Action: TCloseAction);
begin
 with reg do
  begin
   WriteInteger (progname, 'ShowCallsTreeH', height);
   WriteInteger (progname, 'ShowCallsTreeW', width);
   WriteBool (progname, 'ShowCallsTreeCas', nocascade);
  end;
 action:= caFree
end;

procedure TShowCallsTree.SaveCheck;
begin
 reg.WriteBool (progname, 'ShowCallsTreeCas', nocascade);
end;
After this excursion into the worlds of system menus and inherited forms, we can know address the issue for which we have gathered: how to decascade a child window.

David says in his answer: looking at WM_MDICASCADE it has an option to skip disabled MDI children from cascading. So you could disable certain child windows, send a WM_MDICASCADE message yourself and then re-enable the child windows. Probably easier said that done. The program's main form has a method called cascade, but this is an encapsulation of the WM_MDICascade message and leaves no room for manoeuvre. It has to be replaced by sending the actual WM_MDICascade message, and this message has to have the parameter 2 in order to ensure that disabled windows are ignored.

The main form iterates over the child windows, looking for a form which is decended from TNoCascadeForm; if its nocascade variable is set to true, then the form is disabled. Once this has been done, the form can send the above message to its MDI container window, which handles the cascade. Then the form iterates once more over the child windows, re-enabling those which had previously been disabled.

procedure TMainForm.mnCascadeClick(Sender: TObject);
var
 i: integer;

begin
 for i:= 0 to MDIChildCount - 1 do
  if MDIChildren[i] is TNoCascadeForm
   then if TNoCascadeForm (MDIChildren[i]).nocascade
    then TNoCascadeForm (MDIChildren[i]).enabled:= false;

 sendmessage (mainform.clienthandle, WM_MDICASCADE, 2, 0);

 for i:= 0 to MDIChildCount - 1 do
  if MDIChildren[i] is TNoCascadeForm
   then if TNoCascadeForm (MDIChildren[i]).nocascade
    then TNoCascadeForm (MDIChildren[i]).enabled:= true;
end;
The proof is in the pudding - this really works! Thank you, David, for the help in pointing the way.

Thursday, December 08, 2011

Post mortem on the Finance exam

I've been quiet for the past few weeks mainly because I've been revising for the MBA Finance exam, which was held today. Other than this, there hasn't been much to write about (not that this will stop me...).

The exam was in two halves; 50% of the marks come from multiple choice questions (MCQ) and 50% come from open questions. The agreed tactic was to start with the MCQs, do those which could done without too much thought or effort, then do the open questions, and in the remaining time one does the MCQs which were previously skipped over.

The examiners don't care how one arrives at the answers of the MCQs; they could come from calculation, from intuition or from guessing (I prefer to calculate). The class had passed around a collection of MCQs collected over the years, and I don't think that there was one question today which appeared in the collection (so much for those students who memorised the questions and answers!). Of course, there were questions of the kind "If someone receives a loan of X pounds and repays so much for four years, what is the rate of interest?" and "How much do I have to save every year if I want to receive a pension of 1 million pounds in 25 years, with an interest rate of 6%", but apart from that, almost everything was new. I skipped maybe four questions the first time around; three became obvious when doing them at the end, and the fourth question I guessed (even though there are four options, two were algebraicly the same, presented in slightly different forms, so the possibility of getting the question right is 50%). There were a few questions which I am slightly doubtful about in retrospect, but I imagine that I got about 40 out of 50 marks here.

The first open question started off with a calculation comparing leasing buses or taking a loan in order to buy them, For ten marks, one had to lay out the cash flow, calculate the the company's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and say which option was better. We've done similar exercises in the past, so this wasn't problematic. Even so, talking with someone after the exam, I discovered that I might well have made a mistake here regarding one of the sums of money. Even so, I'll probably only lose one mark, because I used the correct methods throughout.

A further five marks were to be made by listing the advantages of leasing (easy), four or five with a strange question about a company selling its shop and then leasing it back straight away, and then a few more marks about 'agency problems'. I would like to think that I did very well on this question.

The final question (20 marks) started off with calculating spot and forward interest rates before demanding the calculation of a bond's current price and a question about the bond's duration. As it happens, I had ignored spot and forward interest rates until the subject came up at a revision meeting about two weeks ago when I relearnt the material, which is not too complicated. The data, however, were presented in an unfamiliar manner and I made a false start before I hit on the correct method (or at least, I hope that it's the correct method) of making the calculations. The subquestions about the bond were easy although on reflection, I made a small mistake regarding the duration (lose one mark).

Unless I have made a gross miscalculation, I should have done very well on this exam. Results in about six weeks.

As it happens, I've been reading (when not revising) a very interesting book on the Kindle, called "The ascent of money" by Niall Ferguson. This should be required background material for both the Economics and Finance courses. Apart from the interesting historical background, it is also written after the 2007 crash, which changed the rules of finance. At times, I found the course amusing with remarkably high interest rates (10% is not to be sneered at, when the interest rate in Britain or USA is about 1% these days); even more amusing were the statements that "real (inflation less) interest rates are the same in every country" and that "exchange rates can be calculated on the basis of inflation rates". Will someone please explain to me why the exchange rate for shekels to sterling has remained around six for some time? The interest rate in Britain is maybe 1% and the inflation rate 5%, whereas the interest rate in Israel is 2.75% (just lowered from 3%) and inflation is also about 2.75%. The exchange rate should be completely different. 

Despite being told that there are no arbitrage opportunities for long, the above shows possibilities: if I were to take a loan in Britain for (say) 1000 pounds at 2% per annum (I don't know whether that's accurate), I would have to pay 1020 pounds back after a year - but as there is 5% inflation, that would only be 971 'real' pounds. I could invest that money here in Israel, get a higher rate of nominal interest and then repay the loan, making a profit. But I won't do this.

Next Thursday, I start my penultimate course, "Negotiation". Unfortunately we have one lecture on Thursday evening and one lecture on Friday morning for six weeks but no lectures in February (the exam is in March). I wish I could sleep in the college on Thursday night instead of returning home and then returning the next morning.


Friday, November 25, 2011

Crisis averted: no need for oral surgery

You know the story about the man who goes into hospital for an examination of his left knee and ends up having his right leg amputated? That nearly happened to me, albeit on a much smaller scale.

The story starts about a month and a half ago when I went to the dental clinic for a routine checkup. The only thing that the dentist could find that needed treatment was the wisdom tooth on the left upper hand side (let's dispose with technical terms such as maxilla and mandible). I was surprised as I thought that I had had all my wisdom teeth extracted; it turns out that I had the teeth on the right hand side extracted but not on the left. The tooth was decaying and as there was no corresponding tooth on the lower side (the jaw), the dentist thought it best that the tooth be extracted. 

She tried to take x-rays of the offending tooth but because of its position, she wasn't able to get a good picture, so she sent me to get a panoramic x-ray of my teeth. This I did, which I returned to the clinic; then I waited for the expert to decide whether the extraction could be performed in the clinic or in hospital (both of my children have had wisdom teeth extracted in the oral surgery department of the hospital).

Yesterday I kept my appointment with the expert; he looked at the x-ray and saw a wisdom tooth embedded on the lower left hand side, at 90 degrees to the rest of my teeth: a perfect case for surgical extraction. He wrote an explanatory note for the surgeon at the hospital and sent me on my way. Outside, I was stunned for a few moments until I recalled that my regular dentist had sent me for a panoramic x-ray because she couldn't get a good picture of the decayed tooth. If she could see the tooth then it couldn't be embedded!

I went back to the expert and explained why I had been referred to him in the first place. He consulted my dental notes, saw what my dentist had written and confirmed that he had indeed been looking at the wrong tooth. Instead of an operation, I needed a relatively simple extraction, which he could do in half an hour. Crisis averted.

He still thinks that the embedded tooth should be extracted, but as long as it's not causing any problems, there's no real need to do so. Dentists are divided on whether such teeth should be extracted as a manner of course. The surgical extraction of the wisdom tooth on the upper right hand side some 25 years ago caused me many after-affects, including low blood pressure for a few years. That's not something that I will willingly undergo again if there is no real acute cause.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Two spy novels

Despite having invested in a Kindle, I found myself ordering two real books a week ago, as either there aren't Kindle versions available yet or the Kindle version is more expensive.

First off was the third book by Stella Rimington in her Liz Carlyle series, "Illegal action". The basis of this book was more to my liking that the previous ones: Liz has been transferred to Counter-Intelligence (i.e. working against the Soviet threat) from Counter-Terrorism. As an old cold warrior, I much prefer the deviousness of the Soviets. I can't put my finger on the exact cause, but all the way through the book, I kept feeling unsatisfied. As I have pointed out before, Rimington is no literary stylist and seems to write by the numbers (at five sixths of the way through the book, there will be a huge twist in the story which changes one's entire outlook). There are always a few chapters in which the main character of the chapter is referred to solely as "He" or "She", meaning that Rimington is describing someone's actions but that she doesn't want the reader to guess who that person is. I won't reveal the detail for this book, but it wasn't too hard to figure out who the mystery person was. At the end of the book, I found myself so unimpressed that I decided probably not to bother buying any more books in this series. A shame, because a better writer could have done so much more with the story elements.

On the other hand, "The Trinity Six" by Charles Cumming was the real thing. Dense, intriguing and cerebral, this is a worthy successor to Le Carre, mixing fact with fiction almost seamlessly. I've read most of the books listed in the 'bibliography' at the end, so the the historical parts of the story were very familiar. Cumming's anti-hero, Dr Sam Gaddis, does come over as slightly too resourceful for an academic, but that only makes for a better story. He is also a tad too trusting during at least the first half of the novel; I would have thought that someone as well versed in all things Russian would have been more suspicious. Presumably I had an advantage over Gaddis in that I could read what other characters in the book were doing when they were not interacting with him, and so I was able to identify his babysitter well in advance. I also found the fact that Gaddis repeatedly was able to slip under the Russians' radar unbelievable. Maybe they too have lost their touch since the end of the cold war.

Looking back on the story (and this is one that deserves a second and third read, without doubt), it occurs to me that the focus of the story changes in a subtle manner about half way through: the sixth man becomes abandoned and someone else takes his place as being the the book's raison d'etre. The sixth man essentially becomes a red herring.

I hope that Cumming's other book, "A Spy by Nature" is of a similarly high quality. I note that Cumming was approached to join MI6 but turned them down.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Relieving the pressure

I wrote a few days ago about waking up every morning and feeling anxious about the finance exam, which will take place in another 25 days. I found the perfect solution - I sat down and solved some of the questions from previous exams.

The lecturer pointed out a few questions from previous papers; these were so old that there was no printed solution, which actually is a good thing as one can't cheat. I solved about 80% of the questions correctly, and asked her (the lecturer) on Friday about the points which I wasn't sure about. I'm going to sit down either tonight and tomorrow night and resolve the questions, thus reinforcing the techniques which I need. She will demonstrate how to solve the questions on Tuesday and I want to be super-prepared.

I point out that during the Marketing course, we 'solved' the same exam question again and again until we had it down perfectly and could reproduce the answer from memory. There, the answer took five pages of A4 paper, filled with writing. Solving a finance question is much shorter.

It has become clear what the tactics are: first of all, one has to find the cost of capital which to be used, which is the weighted cost of equity and debt (WACC). There are two ways of calculating the cost of equity and two ways of calculating the cost of debt; in both cases there is one simple method (SML) and one slightly more complicated method (dividends and yield to maturity). I knew the simple methods but wasn't too familiar with the more complicated methods; this has now been rectified.

Then one has to lay out a cash flow table. This isn't complicated but it can be finicky. Once the cashflow is known along with the cost of capital, then one can calculate the net present value (NPV). These are the basics of every question.

The questions which will be answered on Tuesday have the same characteristic in that one has to compare two projects with different lengths. In these cases, it's not enough to calculate the NPV; one also has to calculate the average cost per year. It's not correct to divide the NPV by the number of years that the project runs; one has to perform another calculation on the NPV in order to calculate the annual payment. The lecturer tells me that one will still be able to calculate which project is better if one performs simple division, but that the figure won't be right.

One question was about two machines, one having a life time of four years and the other seven. Another question was about renewing the parquet floor of a basketball court (four and eight years); this latter question can also be solved by changing the cash flow so that there is a second investment after five years. Put simply, which is better - investing $1,000 in a washing machine which will last eight years, or $600 in a washing machine which lasts four years and will then have to be bought again? 

Once one has finished with these questions, the examiners always twist the knife a little and change the scenario. How would the washing machine answer change if there is 3.5% annual inflation? What would happen if the more expensive washing machine lasts nine years instead of eight?

As one can easily get confused about inflation, I think it wise to note a few things here. One can either work with nominal figures (no adjustment for inflation) or real figures (adjusted for inflation), although of course one has to know whether the figures are nominal or real. Rule of thumb: unless otherwise explicitly noted, all figures are nominal. Thus, if we have to pay $600 for a washing machine now and there is 3.5% annual inflation, then in four years time we will have to pay 600 X 1.035 X 1.035 X 1.035 X 1.035 = $668.5; this is the figure than one puts into the cash flow whilst leaving the cost of capital unchanged. The other way of doing this is by leaving the price at $600 and reducing the cost of capital by 1.035 to the power of four, but this seems to be less intuitive even though mathematically it is exactly the same.

Anyway: the pressure is relieved and I am confident.

Kindle arrives

I received my Kindle on Friday lunchtime. At first, I thought that I was missing a cable, but it turns out that the power cord is one of those new-fangled dual-function cables which serves as both USB and power cable. My first act upon arriving home was to connect the Kindle to mains electricity via the USB charger.

After a few hours, I became inquisitive as to whether the Kindle was fully charged (apparently not) and whether I could use it. After a fair amount of scratching my head and looking at web sites, I was just about to write to a technical support site when I noticed another post in which someone wrote about having problems turning the Kindle on. "One has to turn the Kindle on?", I asked myself. I then had a close look at the user guide (which is on the web and on the Kindle, but of course I couldn't access the Kindle version yet) and discovered that there is a recessed power button. I pressed the button and the Kindle came to life. I laughed for about five minutes.

Once I crossed this minor hurdle, I saw fairly quickly how to use the controls. There are still some things which I haven't learnt yet but I'm sure that I'll catch on quickly. I connected the Kindle to my computer and loaded all the books which I have stored in preparation for this great event. Then I was indeed able to read books.

Two observations: one can sort the books by title, by author or by last loading date. It would be more useful if I could sort by last access date. I will have to see whether this is possible.

Secondly, most books - even if they were originally PDF files - converted well and are readable. It seems that the PDFs aren't as navigatable as the MOBI files, as they are lacking chapters. I had converted the PDF text to my current MBA course to MOBI and looked at this on the Kindle. When the text was pure text, then it was easily readable, but tables and formulae came out in a wrong format and are useless. Reading the finance text was very difficult, so I think I'm not going to bother with this again. On the other hand, my next MBA course will be 'Negotiation', and I imagine that this will be mainly text so it should be readable.

Early days yet, but the machine seems promising.